Bracing for the by-election

A leadership test, a tax referendum — what’s at stake in St. Paul’s?

Call it a showdown between the Toronto Sun and War Child Canada, or maybe it’s the Great and Glorious Struggle for Sales Tax Harmonization. Some think that the St. Paul’s by-election may even mark the beginning of the end of Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals in Ontario. But maybe we should simply call it what it is — a by-election fraught with over-interpretation.

Going with the latter definition, it’s important not to overlook the significance of this mid-September showdown in Forest Hill and the surrounding area. Not only is this Ontario’s lone election, but one in which all parties have pulled out the heavy-artillery candidates — gay Toronto Sun city hall columnist Sue-Ann Levy for the Progressive Conservatives, War Child Canada co-founder Eric Hoskins for the Liberals, and long-serving NDPer Julian Heller taking another run in the riding after losing in the last provincial election.

But this race is more that just the sum of its personalities; McGuinty’s “blended” sales tax proposal is causing a stir throughout the province, and this is the first test for the neophyte leaders of both the NDP and PCs (Andrea Horwath and Tim Hudak respectively). And of course, St. Paul’s is right in the heart of a city that’s had an entire stinky summer to become disenchanted with politics and politicians altogether.

So what does this all mean for St. Paul’s, after the riding’s former MPP, Michael Bryant left the post to head up Invest Toronto for the city? (As we went to press, Bryant was being held as a suspect in the hit-and-run death of a cyclist, so exactly what he’ll be heading up is an open question; roughly 36 hours after the incident, Bryant submitted his resignation to Mayor Miller.) Well, that depends on who you speak to. After interviewing all three candidates last week, the two opposition challengers for this Liberal stronghold are intent on making the race primarily about the harmonized sales tax — merging the GST and PST into a “value added” tax. Many economists say that despite the rising prices of things like gas and books, internet service and homes, the savings from administering and collecting only one tax will ultimately help Ontario’s economy and create jobs.

Heller disagrees, calling the HST a “classic by-election issue because it is a non-responsive government imposing an unfair tax at a time when people feel they are being treated unfairly,” adding that “a by-election is a perfect vehicle for them to express dissatisfaction and this is a lightning rod for their concern about the lack of action from the McGuinty government.”

Similarly, Levy bemoans the taxation that she and her fellow St. Paul’s residents endure, spitting out the classic, “I’m hearing the same thing: people are just fed up with high taxes in Toronto. I don’t think they can stomach one more tax.” What she adds to the conversation is that, “unless I bring [this tax] to everybody’s attention, it is going to sneak through next July. So this needs to be a referendum on the HST.”

What’s interesting is that while Progressive Conservative Levy is categorically opposed to the tax merger, the federal Conservative government has been promoting it (Ontario would be the fifth province to adopt it, alongside BC next summer) with Stephen Harper’s government even kicking in $4.3 billion in cash to make it happen.

When asked about the opposition’s seemingly conflicted reaction, Hoskins says, “Tim Hudak himself has stressed the value of a single sales tax. Earlier this year he was saying it is good for business. Are they saying that this measure that’s been so supported in the business community and federal government and countries all over the world is not the direction that he would want to go?” He adds, “I think that this is a little bit of electioneering on their part.” While he believes that merging the taxes is the right thing to do, he seems more interested in putting his community activism to work in a constructive manner than in entering into a HST battleground. “I like to believe that the residents of St. Paul’s dictate the issues rather than any one party,” he adds.

Despite the backward-looking direction that his party has adopted under Horwath’s leadership, Heller is probably the sanest alternative to continued Liberal rule. Beyond being anti-HST, he is interested in Toronto’s infrastructure, saying, “The current government has been very adept at making announcements for improvements that are 10 to 15 years down the line, and are only partial solutions to the problems. We have to make a real investment in the city.” He says he is committed to finding a way to eliminate or severely restrict the Ontario Municipal Board, which would bring much joy to OMB-wary St. Paul’s, if not the entire city.

Levy, on the other hand, maintains her desire to be a “fierce advocate for Toronto.” Yet she thinks that this advocacy also entails keeping a close eye on the money that flows from senior levels of government to the municipal level. “Dalton is great at signing cheques and standing at photo ops with his friend David Miller,” she says. “But I don’t think there are thorough checks and balances on where the money goes once the cheque is cashed.” Since her opinion of “socialist silly hall” has been well established in her columns, it almost sounds like Levy is intent on controlling the mayor from an office at Queen’s Park.

This is no easy race for any of the candidates, and in the parallel universe of by-elections, sometimes anything is possible. Just ask John Tory. While admittedly socially progressive, Levy is still a PC serving under Hudak’s Common Sense Revolution 2.0 regime, and no amount of Harris-era revisionism can erase the downloaded services that continue to burden Toronto’s budget. Hoskins, on the other hand, may be the most obvious choice for this pro-Liberal neighbourhood, but his biggest challenge is going to be explaining the HST in a way that doesn’t get drowned out by the naysayers. Needless to say, there’s a lot to think about in the next two weeks.